I did a deep dive into the BC Filly and Mare Turf for some insight. Started when that race began in 1999. I started thinking about this race due to the European classics and big Graded stakes starting in June.

From the 23 winners, 20 had a final prep TG fig in the Top 5. 15/23 (65%) were in Top 3 if you want to take that semi-risk.

I looked at the last three races of the 33 horses that won and very, very close runner-ups to create a Pattern. The most repeated patterns that resulted in a Top or Pair in the BC F&M Turf were:

PAIR-PAIR-PAIR (9 times)
TOP-PAIR-PAIR (3 times)
OFF-PAIR-PAIR (3 times)
OFF-OFF-PAIR (3 times)

Therefore, if a horse has a fig in its final prep that is in the Top 5 (better, in the Top 3) and they have one of the patterns above, that’s a strong profile and a very strong contender.

Other interesting tid-bits:
* 9 of the 33 had a Top in their last prep. Only 1 got a new top in BC and that was a runner-up. So expect a Pair.
* To expect a Top or Pair in the BC, demand a Top or Pair in Final Prep
* In close calls or to take a gamble, also demand a Top or Pair in 2nd race for a Top/Pair in BC.
* 11 of the 33 used Lasix in the BC F&M Turf. They improved as follows from their final prep: four had the same fig as in their last prep, 1/4 improvement, half point improvement, 3/4 improvement, 1 point improvement, 1.3 point improvement, 2.3 point improvement, and 3.1 point improvement.