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Re: batten down (194 Views)
Posted by: Molesap (IP Logged)
Date: January 27, 2024 11:00AM

Judging from the DD probables, the 5 will be the favorite - then the 1-2 in that race. Here are my top 4 (although Pletcher is always tough with debuters). Think the 2 has a big chance in this race and I will key in one P5, then spread in this race with another.

2. Batten Down. Cleverly named colt is full to stakes winner Tacitus. His dam, Close Hatches, was a stakes winner who went 9/14 and booked almost $3 million while winning an Eclipse award in 2014. Interestingly, she has seven foals, four of which are Tapits and they are the only ones to make it to the races (assuming Batten Down goes today) - so all Tapits. Scylla broke her maiden in debut for Mott at Kee last April and then followed that up with an allowance win at CD. She has been on the shelf since, but recently has started working again. She seems to be a fairly promising prospect as a 4YO filly. Note that 2-2-0-0 is a nice start to her career. Maximus Aurelius debuted for Mott at CD, but finished near the back of the field. He eventually broke his maiden in his 6th start in a Pen MSW and has not been seen in almost a year. He went 11-1-1-2 in his career. Tacitus, ran 4th in Bel debut for Mott and then reeled off three victories in a row including the Tampa Bay Derby and the Wood Memorial. He went off the third choice in the Kentucky Derby and was moved up to third when Maximum Security was DQ’d. He is often considered by many an underachiever as he ran 12 more times only managing to win the G2 Suburban in that time span. That was a long was to go to say the dam side is pretty good. He had one full sibling who won their debut and one who won in their second start - all for Mott. Juddmonte tends to be high profile on these big days as well. Mott hits at 11% with first time dirt sprinters at GP and has one winner from two firsters this year. Sire Tapit hits at 14% first out. Like that he had some strong works and the last couple are not as fast - likely because Mott thinks he is fit and ready and does not need to put anything into him that is too taxing. Prat takes the ride and while normally he does not ride for Mott, he has won twice from the last four times he has ridden for him. Do not think you will get anything close to 6/1 (likely half or less) but seems to fit nicely here.

5. Victory Avenue. Gustavo Delgado is trying to find lightening in a bottle Mage won his debut in a 7f race last year at this time on his way to a Kentucky Derby victory. Sire Arrogate gets 13% first out winners and trainer is a strong 9-3-0-1 with debuting dirt sprinters at GP the past couple of years. He has a couple of nice works, but I do not like the gaps and he has only worked twice in 2024 and only worked three times in December. Trainer knows how to get them ready, but hard to win at 7f in debut off those few works. Dam, has one foal to race. Epic Miss Justice ran 4th in debut at Mth for Kelly Breen and steadily improved finish position, running 3rd, 2nd, and then 1st in the next three starts. Has not run since.

8. Big City. Tough for debuters to win at 7f and this one is by far the best of the three to race on paper. Should improve second time out and ran a decent number behind a horse that impressed.

10. Unspoken Request. Spatz has a strong record of 52-11-6-6 with debuting dirt sprinters at GP the last couple of years. Like the breeding (Good Magic = 14%) and the works - interesting bomb.



Subject Written By Posted
batten down (359 Views) apindy62 01/25/2024 05:58PM
Re: batten down (194 Views) Molesap 01/27/2024 11:00AM


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