I agree that Conquest Warrior is a horse the public loves. I've read and seen public handicappers saying very positive things as a Kentucky Derby type horse. I have two friends that think Shug has the real deal here. But in this spot, I think he goes as 3rd choice just behind Hades in part b/c of the perceived pace scenario that looks favorable to Hades. It will be interesting to see how this plays out both on the tote board and on the track as there are some interesting alternatives to consider if against the top 3.

A few trainer stats on some late races at GP for those that are interested:

Conquest Warrior, Florida Derby: Shug when Switching to Off Lasix is 6 for 82 last 5 years (6 for 80 in stakes). And only 2 wins in that category all of 2023. None this year but two close 2nd's. This doesn't sway me a whole lot but the Off Lasix thing is such an issue to consider these days as all know around here.

Gun Song, Florida Oaks: Mark Hennig is 0 for 16 the past 5 years when switching to Off Lasix. This one is meaningful and makes this one a Toss for me in the win spot.

La Mehana (Fr), The Orchid Stakes: Clement is 2 for 22 the past 5 years with Foreign Shippers that start in Turf Stakes races. He is 1 for 6 when you narrow that to Graded Stakes. The one winner was Amazing Grace in the Orchid Stakes last year at 6-5 with Joel Rosario aboard (aboard Le Mehana Sat). Amazing Grace was coming in off a near identical layoff. In her last at Longchamp in Sept (a Group 1), La Mehana did hit the front after tracking the leaders closely throughout before being passed by the top 2. I'll be curious how TG views this one compared to this field.