For years I've passed on Florida Derby winners in the Ky Derby because I thought that Gulfstream's main track had/has a bias against closers. Without getting into a statistical study I just figured closers coming from FL were better bets than frontrunning winners shipping to KY. C/B Calif speed trumps FL speed or whatever, even though some good ones completed that double.

After watching Conquest Warrior's two Gulfstream races when he came from the back to dominant wins while appearing to be running formful and within himself. I just thought he had so much more energy. I imagine Ortiz will not give away the race in the first 1/2 mile. So with a similar finish from a mid-pack position, it will take a special effort by another to beat him.

At this stage of development and competition, it looks to me like the only horse that can win without a new top would be Fierceness (Note - I read he is working like a monster)

I'm gonna pass on Hades in the top spot. He could get outrun early, which I don't think helps him win, or set a crawling Holy Bull like pace which I also don't think helps his winning chances. I don't know how he'll respond to a legit pace.

I like City of Light.

The questionable form and condition of Fierceness makes the race playable for the bold.