Your Ask The Experts ID
is separate from your
Order Online Account ID
 Race of the Week:  2024 Belmont Stakes Final Figures Saratoga June 7-8, 2024 
Order Online
Buy TG Data
Complete Menu of
TG Data products
Simulcast Books
Customize a Value
Package of Select
TG Data
Sheet Requests
Order The Last Figure for Any Horse
Free Products
Redboard Room
Download and Review previous days' data.
Race of the Week
With detailed comments
ThoroTrack
Email notification when your horse races
Information
Introduction
For newcomers.
Samples and Tutorials
For Horsemen
Consulting services and Graph Racing
Sales Sites
Where to buy TG around the country
Archives
Historical races and handicapping articles
Handicapping
Hall of Fame
Major handicapping contest winners
Home Page
Re: Stephen Foster Day (324 Views)
Posted by: Tavasco (IP Logged)
Date: June 29, 2024 03:58AM

I puzzled over the Stephen Foster for a while late last night. I was trying to develop a contrarian perspective. i.e. A perspective of a result not unreasonable but also not obvious to a first-look analysis. All while finding a ticket with took advantage of what I saw as an overlay angle.

So first, I came up with the notion of tossing the two short-priced contenders Skippylongstocking and First Mission. As tough as their trainers are neither horse is bulletproof. Negative TG #'s produce a negative reaction often enough to produce value. Tossing both from the top slot may seem bold but it sure will improve an exacta payout.

Several candidates will escalate the tri payoff in one of the two under-slots. Entrants like Pyrenees and Happy American in the tri would probably be the best candidates based on price/potential.

I'm too bleary-eyed to edit or proof the above. To be continued...

It's not unreasonable for Skippy & First Mission to ruin each other's race but what else are Geroux and J. Ortiz going to do? Who then inherits the win. I'm gonna count on Steal the Sunshine to run 2nd. A horse that runs the same # six consecutive times will confuse many a player. In the top spot, I'll use Dreamlike and Disarm. Either horse could fit the model of a nice almost exceptional 3 y/o who improves as a 4/ y/o.

Lastly, I'll add my previously identified third-place candidate under my two exacta tickets as Tri tickets.

All in all the above thinking probably makes a simple puzzle more complicated than it needs to be. Alternatively (an insurance hedge) playing the two favorites in the win slot, my two win choices in the second slot, and my third place choices in the third while leaving the stuck-on-one # enigma to bounce may look better in the light of day.



Subject Written By Posted
Stephen Foster Day (409 Views) Silver Charm 06/28/2024 09:39PM
Re: Stephen Foster Day (324 Views) Tavasco 06/29/2024 03:58AM
Re: Stephen Foster Day (312 Views) Silver Charm 06/29/2024 09:09AM
Re: Stephen Foster Day (261 Views) Tavasco 06/29/2024 02:54PM
Re: Stephen Foster Day (272 Views) Silver Charm 06/29/2024 04:26PM
Re: Stephen Foster Day (245 Views) jbelfior 06/30/2024 09:11AM
Re: Stephen Foster Day (265 Views) Silver Charm 06/30/2024 09:41AM
Re: Stephen Foster Day (311 Views) jbelfior 06/30/2024 12:42PM


Sorry, only registered users may post in this forum.
This forum powered by Phorum.

Thoro-Graph 180 Varick Street New York, NY 10014 ---- Click here for the Ask The Experts Archives.