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 Race of the Week:  2024 Belmont Stakes Final Figures Saratoga June 7-8, 2024 
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Re: Stephen Foster Day (324 Views)
Posted by: Tavasco (IP Logged)
Date: June 29, 2024 03:58AM

I puzzled over the Stephen Foster for a while late last night. I was trying to develop a contrarian perspective. i.e. A perspective of a result not unreasonable but also not obvious to a first-look analysis. All while finding a ticket with took advantage of what I saw as an overlay angle.

So first, I came up with the notion of tossing the two short-priced contenders Skippylongstocking and First Mission. As tough as their trainers are neither horse is bulletproof. Negative TG #'s produce a negative reaction often enough to produce value. Tossing both from the top slot may seem bold but it sure will improve an exacta payout.

Several candidates will escalate the tri payoff in one of the two under-slots. Entrants like Pyrenees and Happy American in the tri would probably be the best candidates based on price/potential.

I'm too bleary-eyed to edit or proof the above. To be continued...

It's not unreasonable for Skippy & First Mission to ruin each other's race but what else are Geroux and J. Ortiz going to do? Who then inherits the win. I'm gonna count on Steal the Sunshine to run 2nd. A horse that runs the same # six consecutive times will confuse many a player. In the top spot, I'll use Dreamlike and Disarm. Either horse could fit the model of a nice almost exceptional 3 y/o who improves as a 4/ y/o.

Lastly, I'll add my previously identified third-place candidate under my two exacta tickets as Tri tickets.

All in all the above thinking probably makes a simple puzzle more complicated than it needs to be. Alternatively (an insurance hedge) playing the two favorites in the win slot, my two win choices in the second slot, and my third place choices in the third while leaving the stuck-on-one # enigma to bounce may look better in the light of day.

Subject Written By Posted
Stephen Foster Day (409 Views) Silver Charm 06/28/2024 09:39PM
Re: Stephen Foster Day (324 Views) Tavasco 06/29/2024 03:58AM
Re: Stephen Foster Day (312 Views) Silver Charm 06/29/2024 09:09AM
Re: Stephen Foster Day (261 Views) Tavasco 06/29/2024 02:54PM
Re: Stephen Foster Day (272 Views) Silver Charm 06/29/2024 04:26PM
Re: Stephen Foster Day (245 Views) jbelfior 06/30/2024 09:11AM
Re: Stephen Foster Day (265 Views) Silver Charm 06/30/2024 09:41AM
Re: Stephen Foster Day (311 Views) jbelfior 06/30/2024 12:42PM

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