I'm by no means an expert and I would love to hear a more expert opinion than my own, but given the 3pts of development expected for Into Mischief horses, Timberlake getting down to that -0 or -1 he may need to win this race could be in his range of outcomes.

I follow the Jeff Franklin school of thought on 3YOs and bounces. It's not so easy to just predict a developing 3YO or lightly raced 4YO will bounce. World Record made a 5 pt jump second time out appearing to have more horse, then paired that effort on an off surface and a bad break when he had every right to bounce. Then he comes out and runs a -1 and draws the ground saving trip that could break any tie of horses trying to meet or exceed that number. I'm by no means seasoned enough using the sheets to say he's the "easy pick" TGJB was referring to, but I'd wager it's either him or Prince of Monaco.