My kind of post with the stats, research, and time involved here. I appreciate the work put in here.

I'm fascinated by the Classic this year from an interest and viewing perspective. City of Troy and the Japanese make for a lot of question marks. City of Troy with the dirt as a question mark. Yes, I saw his work on (fill in the correct name for poly/Synth/Etc). Hype isn't enough for me to put my money down on a horse when I have no idea how he will even perform on dirt. I was fooled when Johannesburg won the Juvenile at Belmont more than 20 years ago into believing O'Brien would have great success on dirt here at times. As you point out, it has largely been a failure although their performances have been competitive related to their own figures on 5 of 9 attempts in your list (that fit a similar profile to City of Troy).

The Japanese (with Forever Young along with the two that competed last year including last year's place finisher in the Classic who will probably be the longest price) make for some difficult decisions.

So, from a gambling perspective, I don't have a strong opinion here and will likely pass. But I will be tuned in and gambling on many of the other races. And with the Classic 5 races prior to the finish, it should not be too tough for me to just watch and enjoy.