I mentioned several reasons I bet him

Works was just one part of it.

As far as being on his A game, the seminar comments clearly pointed to several horses that were not going to run their A game. So whatever his A game was, it was possible that it was going to be good enough.

Chaos doesn't mean its a demolition derby full of trouble.

It implies that the results will not be what you think they will be if you go strictly by numbers.

P-Dub