PALMISANO MEMORIAL Stakes (241 Views)
Posted by: Tavasco (IP Logged)
Date: January 11, 2025 12:03PM
This race goes @ The Fairgrounds today as the 8th.
The simpleton's view of the race is that it appears simple.
We have the top three finishers returning from The Louisianna Sprint on 12/14/2024. GEAUX SUGAR, JACK HAMMER, and NOT ON HERB paraded around in that order. NOT ON HERB @ 22/1 helped create a $200+/1 trifecta by heading 2nd choice El Dinero.
From a TG #'s perspective, GEAUX SUGAR ran a new top last out so he's never been better, and pairing that # probably wins again. He's a front-runner but no rain is expected today to help on an already rain-soaked track.
JACK HAMMER I was surprised to see this one come back in a sprint but scratched instead not being one to race regularly.
NOT ON HERB: A horse who may have set a record for running TG 5's last year can be expected to do the same today, 8/1, on the m/l. The two scratches probably erode that number significantly.
The opportunity seems to me about leaving El DINERO off my bets. Both RANCH BADGE & NOT ON EARL can be expected to beat all but GEAUX SUGAR on their bests.
So smallish win bets on both seem warranted in case GEAUX SUGAR regresses.
EL DINERO lacks early speed and conventional pp's portray him as the consistent also ran he is. Jockey James Graham is his only positive in my view.
It is possible,IMHO, NOT ON EARL may go kamikaze contributing to an EL DINERO/ RANCH BADGE ebx.
In the end RANCH BADGE appears the value.
The simpleton's view of the race is that it appears simple.
We have the top three finishers returning from The Louisianna Sprint on 12/14/2024. GEAUX SUGAR, JACK HAMMER, and NOT ON HERB paraded around in that order. NOT ON HERB @ 22/1 helped create a $200+/1 trifecta by heading 2nd choice El Dinero.
From a TG #'s perspective, GEAUX SUGAR ran a new top last out so he's never been better, and pairing that # probably wins again. He's a front-runner but no rain is expected today to help on an already rain-soaked track.
JACK HAMMER I was surprised to see this one come back in a sprint but scratched instead not being one to race regularly.
NOT ON HERB: A horse who may have set a record for running TG 5's last year can be expected to do the same today, 8/1, on the m/l. The two scratches probably erode that number significantly.
The opportunity seems to me about leaving El DINERO off my bets. Both RANCH BADGE & NOT ON EARL can be expected to beat all but GEAUX SUGAR on their bests.
So smallish win bets on both seem warranted in case GEAUX SUGAR regresses.
EL DINERO lacks early speed and conventional pp's portray him as the consistent also ran he is. Jockey James Graham is his only positive in my view.
It is possible,IMHO, NOT ON EARL may go kamikaze contributing to an EL DINERO/ RANCH BADGE ebx.
In the end RANCH BADGE appears the value.
| Subject | Written By | Posted |
|---|---|---|
 PALMISANO MEMORIAL Stakes (241 Views) |
Tavasco | 01/11/2025 12:03PM |
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