Richie,

Not playing OP (So am not up to date on trainer stats, track bias etc.) but I did tune in for Sunday's card.
Had the TG's as well.

Went back and looked at the race which was a pretty meager lineup for MSW at any level.
Not sure why the #2 would have been bet as Moquett 1sters do not normally interest me. TG stats, however, do show some efforts from some Moquett firsters. ( 9 to 16 tg range for a few) So a TG in that range and the PRAT tax makes the #2 understandable.

As to the others, only the 2 you mentioned 8 and 9 had any sort of TG # that would make them competitive.

I imagine most had the 8&9 on horizontals.

The 11 had a TG 23 last year at 10-1 for a trainer that does not send many maidens. Half to Table Money who ran some fast TG's and is the only sibling on the dam side to race. The sire Bee Jersey has a TG profile that say offspring perform better at sprints than routes.

Considering that the balance of the field ran 18 tg and up, it would be hard to be really confident about any selection based on figs. (But that is just my opinion)

So. as to your theory. If I had the 11 in my sequence, I would NOT want him as the favorite and have my ticket diluted. (Am sure your friend "S" felt that way ).
If I was a CAW and had the 11 covered to some degree, I would feel the same way. In theory, if I was a CAW spreading based on probabilities (or if I was a whale") I would have probably used the 11 proportionately in my horizontals and my "return" would not be impacted by the scratch of #2. What I am suggesting is that if a bettor hated the 2nd and 3rd choice ( 8 & 9) but loved the 4th choice, why make the 4th choice the favorite? Just cash your larger payoff when the 11 wins. The scratch of the #2 would not impact your return.

If, on the other hand, you had failed to include the #11 in your horizontal wagers, (say you only singled the #2 in the finale) then what you propose makes sense. But only if you (for some reason) you knew or were supremely confident the 11 was such a Cinch of a horse that "CAN DO CAN DO". :)

Was not watching the tote for the 12th. What were the odds on the 2 8 9 and 11 prior to the #2 scratching?

Hope all is well in the show me state.

Bob