Thoughts on FD Card (499 Views)
Posted by: ajkreider (IP Logged)
Date: March 28, 2025 08:26PM
1. Hoping Chicago Theatre draws in. Has the co-best last out turf number. Only two races on the sheet, so room to improve. 6-1 ML should drift higher.
2. Avant Glory deserves the favoritism with easily best last out fig, but 3-1 is a decent price. Worried about being in for that tag. Santos to Wilson has a competitive number and will play him if around the morning line 10-1.
3.Classic of Course is the play here at 5-1. Never on turf but last out synth number is better than anyone here. Should save a bit of ground.
4. Two favorites belong. La Mehana may be the best show bet on the card. But won't be playing either at those prices. Maybe a tri box of her Queen Regent and Beach Bomb. For the win, going with Sacaya. The number 4 back wins this. First start in the US for new trainer Clemente.
5. Maidens so who knows. XY prime ran pretty good last out, and 9-2 is playable. can't see the Pletcher/Irad duo going off at 4-1. They will have some of my money if they do. But any of the unraced Pletcher/Cox/Mott horses are playable. Go with the longest odds.
6. I guess the layoff is why Tawney Port is 6-1 compared to the fave's 7-5, despite very similar sheets. Lorenz hasn't been this far, but the number 3 back has a real shot at 15-1
7. If White Abarrio fires it's his race. Lighting Tones looks to be the overlay of the day - easily 2nd best fig. Surprised at Power Squeeze's last number. She could do some damage in her division instead of banging her head against these.
8.Wide open race. Will be playing Tiz Romantic's best last out fig from the 3 hole. Sherlock's Jewel worth a flyer at 20-1. Went off the rail last summer. But lays over this field if right. This race is one to bet the board. If Itsallcommintogetha drifts up, should be on tix somewhere
9.Will be looking to beat the favorites here with Saffie's from the inside. Both made good jump ups last out. Wouldn't put them in against his Queens MG if he didn't think they belonged. Intrigued by Shug's recent grad. Much deeper waters, going two turns. Must think he has something. City of Light out of a Mineshaft.
10. Miss Worldwide will get the favorite Love Cervere's 1W/1W trip. She's the play. Worth watching the odds of Classic Q coming off a nice pair, and Civetta's steady progression.
11. Knightsbridge will take all the money. I guess they've decided he's a sprinter. If he runs his last number, he could finish off the board. Danger everywhere. Great Navigator should move forward off that pair after a layoff. Howgreatisnate will be dangerous with a rail trip. Of A Revolution loves GP. Playmea Tune has the best number anywhere, albeit synth. And a Pletcher at 6-1? Another to play the board. The fave can beat me.
12. Speaking of Pletcher, not sure why they're switching this one to turf but Autumn Evening's dirt figs blow this field away. Can't imagine she stays at 20-1. The fave looks good, but not all that compared to Ocean Club, Be My Sunshine, Five Towns or even Majestic Venezuela - all of which break inside her. You'll get 8-1 on at least on of those. Another wide open race and an opportunity to cash.
13. The two faves (Major Dude and Ice Chocolat) are the class of the field. Filling out the tri, if Doctor Jeff moves up at all synth to dirt from the 3 hole, he gets that spot. Seminole Chief has won two in a row since switching to turf. Another improvement and he's a player. Fly the W with an inside trip belongs.
This is tricky. If the top two run to their worst with wider trips, those others will pay bigly. Maybe exactas
14. Madaket Road is not playable at that price. I almost don't believe the numbers. Will have company on the front and sets up well for the Sovreignty/Tappen Street exacta. Disruptor is worth a win play at 4-1. Maybe Sovreignty reacts off that big effort, and Tappen Street holds on.
Good luck to all.
2. Avant Glory deserves the favoritism with easily best last out fig, but 3-1 is a decent price. Worried about being in for that tag. Santos to Wilson has a competitive number and will play him if around the morning line 10-1.
3.Classic of Course is the play here at 5-1. Never on turf but last out synth number is better than anyone here. Should save a bit of ground.
4. Two favorites belong. La Mehana may be the best show bet on the card. But won't be playing either at those prices. Maybe a tri box of her Queen Regent and Beach Bomb. For the win, going with Sacaya. The number 4 back wins this. First start in the US for new trainer Clemente.
5. Maidens so who knows. XY prime ran pretty good last out, and 9-2 is playable. can't see the Pletcher/Irad duo going off at 4-1. They will have some of my money if they do. But any of the unraced Pletcher/Cox/Mott horses are playable. Go with the longest odds.
6. I guess the layoff is why Tawney Port is 6-1 compared to the fave's 7-5, despite very similar sheets. Lorenz hasn't been this far, but the number 3 back has a real shot at 15-1
7. If White Abarrio fires it's his race. Lighting Tones looks to be the overlay of the day - easily 2nd best fig. Surprised at Power Squeeze's last number. She could do some damage in her division instead of banging her head against these.
8.Wide open race. Will be playing Tiz Romantic's best last out fig from the 3 hole. Sherlock's Jewel worth a flyer at 20-1. Went off the rail last summer. But lays over this field if right. This race is one to bet the board. If Itsallcommintogetha drifts up, should be on tix somewhere
9.Will be looking to beat the favorites here with Saffie's from the inside. Both made good jump ups last out. Wouldn't put them in against his Queens MG if he didn't think they belonged. Intrigued by Shug's recent grad. Much deeper waters, going two turns. Must think he has something. City of Light out of a Mineshaft.
10. Miss Worldwide will get the favorite Love Cervere's 1W/1W trip. She's the play. Worth watching the odds of Classic Q coming off a nice pair, and Civetta's steady progression.
11. Knightsbridge will take all the money. I guess they've decided he's a sprinter. If he runs his last number, he could finish off the board. Danger everywhere. Great Navigator should move forward off that pair after a layoff. Howgreatisnate will be dangerous with a rail trip. Of A Revolution loves GP. Playmea Tune has the best number anywhere, albeit synth. And a Pletcher at 6-1? Another to play the board. The fave can beat me.
12. Speaking of Pletcher, not sure why they're switching this one to turf but Autumn Evening's dirt figs blow this field away. Can't imagine she stays at 20-1. The fave looks good, but not all that compared to Ocean Club, Be My Sunshine, Five Towns or even Majestic Venezuela - all of which break inside her. You'll get 8-1 on at least on of those. Another wide open race and an opportunity to cash.
13. The two faves (Major Dude and Ice Chocolat) are the class of the field. Filling out the tri, if Doctor Jeff moves up at all synth to dirt from the 3 hole, he gets that spot. Seminole Chief has won two in a row since switching to turf. Another improvement and he's a player. Fly the W with an inside trip belongs.
This is tricky. If the top two run to their worst with wider trips, those others will pay bigly. Maybe exactas
14. Madaket Road is not playable at that price. I almost don't believe the numbers. Will have company on the front and sets up well for the Sovreignty/Tappen Street exacta. Disruptor is worth a win play at 4-1. Maybe Sovreignty reacts off that big effort, and Tappen Street holds on.
Good luck to all.
Subject | Written By | Posted |
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ajkreider | 03/28/2025 08:26PM |
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ajkreider | 03/29/2025 04:38PM |
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