I'll look at the Japanese horse when the numbers come out to see if he worries me. At heart, I'm still a class handicapper using who the horses have beaten. Before seeing the final #s, my horse is Sovereignty. He's already defeated the Bluegrass Stakes, Louisiana Derby, and Arkansas Derby winners. He ran fast enough in the FOY to put him there & was not abused in his final Derby prep from a bad post with an unfamiliar jockey. I have my doubts with Journalism. His top # is fast enough, but his 3 stakes wins have been against weak 5 horse fields. I don't know the stats, but I prefer horses who are more used to running in bigger fields than groups of 5 going into the Derby. I think Rodriguez ran against nothing in NY & will face extreme pace pressure in the Derby. Prior to his NY win, he's too slow.
Full disclosure: I have Sovereignty in the last KD Futures pool at $21.40 will pay. I didn't see anything better in the races run this past week and wasn't afraid of Journalism, although I might save with exacta boxes with him along with the Japanese horse.