Okay, I only get to do this a couple of times of year, when everyone is focused on the same horses, so I'll make time. What follows has nothing to do with any opinions I might or might not have for the BC.

According to Ragozin--

Society Solection won the Test, a GI at Saratoga, by 6 1/4 lengths, racing wide-- no matter whose figures you use, she ran 5 points better than the second filly, and 9 better than the third filly. He gave her only a 6, not even a lifetime top for her to that point. In fact, he gave her 3 points WORSE than he gave Stellar Jayne for running third in the Indiana Oaks at Hoosier.

Anyone believe that?

We gave her a negative number for the Test, and miraculously she basically paired it to win the Alabama. Ragozin had her jumping forward off the non-effort.

Ragozin has Balletto going forward 5 points from the Matron to the Frizette (we have her basically pairing, going back slightly). In other words, according to Ragozin, if Baletto had run that race (which was only good enough to win a close race against Ready's Gal and Sis City) one race earlier, she would have beaten Sense Of Style by 8 lengths in the Matron.

Anyone believe that? That those 3 fillies all ran races good enough to slaughter Sense Of Style in the Matron?

Ragozin has Mr. O'Brien winning the Kelso last time with a race almost six points off his top (we have it close to his top). That race went in 1:32:3. In other words, if he had run his top, he would have gone a mile in 1:31 flat, and beat those horses by 10 lengths.

That seem likely?

Nothing To Lose ran a lot of good races over the summer, trading close decisions with Silver Tree, among others. In the Shadwell Mile, he raced very wide both turns, and despite that blew out a good field (that included Silver Tree) by 4 1/2 lengths. Beyer gave him a 110 despite not factoring in the 126 he carried or the enormous ground loss. He earned a figure 3 points better than the second horse, 5 points better than Silver Tree, no matter whether you used TG or Ragozin, and we gave him a 3 point lifetime top, a negative number. Ragozin gave him the same figure as in 2 LOSING efforts earlier this year, one in an optional claimer.

That seem right?

Ragozin had Soaring Free winning the Atto Mile while going back 4 points from his two previous starts. In other words, those efforts in small Canadian stakes would have been good enough to win the big race by 7 lengths.

Yeah, that's probably right.

And finally, as I pointed out in another post, there is Roses In May. According to Ragozin, his Whitney is 4 lengths worse than his Turfway effort, and 8 LENGTHS WORSE THAN HE RAN AT PRAIRIE MEADOWS. If he had run his best race, he would have won the Whitney by 8 lengths.

Absolutely.

Anyway, everyone go back to your handicapping. As I said I only get to do this a couple of times a year, so I couldn't let it pass.



TGJB