Re: Hollywood Futurity (438 Views)
Posted by:
Chuckles_the_Clown2 (IP Logged)
Date: December 17, 2004 08:10PM
I liked Afleet Alex in the Breeders Cup and lost a significant bet. I miss spoke earlier about PA's pedigree. Somehow I was considering only the Septieme Ciel part of the dam side. He comes from an unaccomplished recent female pedigree. Its still not bad, but in my opinion he's not a Derby horse and thats why he's in the Futurity.
Pletcher may be able to pull it off, but if he does he's overcoming the following:
A less than stellar effort in his first two turn effort off a previous big race (Caveat, that Champagne was still the big number, (Not looking at TGraph));
A rare trip West that you have to suspect wouldn't have been made if he won the Juvenile;
A strip which so favors speed, Pletcher opted for blinkers. (This horse was undefeated coming into the B.C. Juvenile, was he really doing anything wrong?)
I just get the distinct impression, that circumstance have plotted PA's entry and not planning. That doesn't mean PA can't win, but this is not a "picked spot". For DeClan's it is.
The same can be said of Wilco. Why is he here? He's the B.C.Juvenile winner. Why is he running? He just popped a quarter crack, the track has been under intense scrutiny for safety considerations. (Horses are breaking down on it) Is it too hard? Is it too fast? Is the prudent thing to do to run Wilco on a patch for a crack he developed at Hollywood? I don't get it. He's had some good horses, but I am not a big fan of Dollase.
Then you have DeClan's probably going off at darn near even money despite never seeing two turns. TGJB appears to think there may be others with chances and thats what I've been looking at since last night. I'll chime in when my thoughts coalesce.
CtC
Post Edited (12-17-04 20:26)