Re: Hollywood Futurity (480 Views)
Posted by:
Chuckles_the_Clown2 (IP Logged)
Date: December 18, 2004 04:40AM
Wilko ran a bunch of steady Turf sprints (around -11) and then ran a Dirt 3. Thats a seven/eight point improvement, but can you really compare Turf to Dirt? I don't equate Turf figures with Dirt figures is what I was trying to say and I do think Wilko was a useful horse on Turf. Theres other factors as well. I think to say the Breeders Cup took too much out of him is hard to do in the circumstances.
Is the first Dirt effort, even vastly improved from Turf efforts, an indication that a taxing effort upon the new surface was given? That said, I make his dirt effort a little better than others. Cigar was a decent Turf horse, but he was in a whole different league on Dirt.
If Wilko gets beat it may be on a large B.C. effort, but he also could be vunerable on track bias, the connection changes and the quarter crack. Those factors trouble me more than his B.C. effort being out of line with his turf efforts. 2's didn't bother Afleet Alex much and 3's didn't hurt Roman Ruler until he had to duplicate them at two turns.
If you don't take Wilko, who do you take? Proud Accolade on a two turn failure trying to run with Bushwacker? DeClan's Moon (Conqueror of Roman Ruler) trying two turns for the first time at about even money? Maybe one of the three amigos Giacomo/Bushwacker/Southern Africa?
Someone is going to win and it's going to be an interesting race, but I'm going to watch it.
CtC
Post Edited (12-18-04 05:06)