CH,

Interesting that you say "many of your bets come as a complete surprise to you". I guess we each have our different betting philosophies. I am a value shopper as well, but it is still pretty rare for me to make a bet that is a total surprise to me. I have a certain view on a race and if there is value on the odds board in supporting that view, I make the bet. Otherwise I skip. I don't shop for value in an opposing view.

Anyway, I think a "strategy" can work many times, but I agree that in some cases it might not. If you look at JB's view on the Futurity, it seems like his thesis was that the favorites were vulnerable and at least 2 of the 3 might not fire. Of the three non-favorites, Giacomo was his choice to step up and possibly win. I guess if somehow Giacomo became favored over Declan's Moon, Proud Accolade or Wilko, the "strategy" would have been skewed.

The strategy in the Starlet was that he thought it was a two horse race, but that Sharp Lisa's "hidden figure" probably gave her value on the win side over Splendid Blended. It is up to the bettor to determine if 8-5 is "value". For me, Sharp Lisa was a bet at 2-1. So no play.