Re: ROTW (423 Views)
Posted by:
BitPlayer (IP Logged)
Date: February 12, 2005 11:58PM
Chris -
I'll join the chorus of congratulations on your fine work, but I also have a question.
I agree with your view that preparing an odds line for every horse is a very useful tool, but Spruce Run exemplifies a ticklish situation that seems to recur. You obviously didn't like the horse, but based on your odds line for him (35-1), he went off (at 57-1) as the biggest overlay in the race. In that situation, do you play him? If so, how?
My approach is to go back and re-handicap the horse. Was I giving him a 3% chance to win as a placeholder because stuff happens, or can I come up with a reason he might improve?
I faced a similar predicament with Colonial Colony in last year's Stephen Foster. I opted to forgo a win bet and play him underneath a couple of shorter priced horses (including Southern Image) in exactas. Agonizingly wrong decision.
A friend of mine argues that such horses must be played as "suicide prevention bets."
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