Re: Bitplayer's question on how to handle longshot overlays (407 Views)
Date: February 13, 2005 07:06PM
>First – I don't think many people (myself included) can make an odds line that is accurate enough to spot the difference between a 33/1 shot and a 50/1.<
Excellent insight.
Your whole post was excellent.
I tend to concentrate my wagers among my top 3 horses in terms of probability of winning.
I rarely go deeper than that unless I am certain the horse is great value.
Since I am often betting against a favorite that I think is very poor value (like Harrington yesterday) I often find myself in the postion of thinking more than one horse is good value. If I do, I bet the same amount on both of them. That allows me to bet some of those lower probability 3rd or even 4th choices without too much fear of a very long losing streak.
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