Dude's, It's just a horse-race. I think everyone over-does it with the Derby. It's typically won by a fast horse, who gets a good trip, and comes into the race with good recent form.

A horse like Thunder Gulch would be a recent exception, he ran a dreadful race in the Blue Grass, but his numbers on the go-back suggested that he was a fast enough horse to compete in the Derby.

I always felt Thunder Gulch hated Keeneland anyway. As a sire, there have been numerous offspring of Thunder Gulch who have run poorly at KEE and come back to run dazzling at Churchill a few weeks later. Spain (a daughter of TG) ran a luckluster race at KEE, than won the Breeders Cup Distaff at 50-to-1 odds a few weeks later at Churchill. Invisible Ink (a son of TG) ran a very mediocre race in the Blue Grass at KEE, than three weeks later he ran 2nd in the Kentucky Derby at something like 50-to-1 odds.