Fellas, it is March fifth, not April 10th. History is full of examples of horses who were running fast now and didn't get there-- Thunder Gulch and SJ are among the very few examples over the last 20 years of March horses who pulled it off.

And the reason everybody thinks DM wasn't 100% is because Ellis said so? Did you ever hear a trainer say his horse coming off a layoff WAS 100%?

My guess is he ran about a 2-3, and his effective top over the next few months will be only a little better than that, if at all. That's based on his early development at two, his lack of development in his last 2 2yo starts, and Ellis' training pattern.

High Fly probably went back and won. He looks like the wrong kind for the Derby as well-- Michael's idea of freshening him and giving him just one into it would have been the right idea. Too late now, it's pretty unlikely he has more short term development in him.

I will be looking to bet aginst these two in the futures. Upon whom is the tough part.



TGJB