Re: Last Saturday (370 Views)
Date: March 09, 2005 02:55PM
>Of those, the one that has been out of whack the most in the direction of giving out figures that are too good over the last few years has been Southern California.<
That certainly isn't the case for 2005. I haven't researched prior to 2005, but I didn't notice anything out of the ordinary among major stakes horses.
I see suspect figures all the time from every figure maker. I think some of that has to do with different views on the impact of pace and how to handle the speed figure.
I don't know who makes the Beyer's in CA, but perhaps he isn't as skilled as some of the other figure guys. I do believe there's a good chance the Strub and Sham were a little too fast. However, the Santa Catalina and SA Handicap could be slow a little too.
A fifth either way doesn't mean too much to me. I am looking for pace, trip, quality, and most importantly odds differences that I think override the small differences in figures. You know that I don't see the figures as being "perfect reflections" of performance. I think there's lot of things that impact time that can't be measured.
Really, if I see 108 - 105 and someone else has those 2 numbers reversed, my oddsline doesn't change enough to get me to the window. They are similar horses. I'm looking to separate them on the trips that contributed to those figures, the trip I expect them to get today, or a big meaningful difference in odds.
Post Edited (03-09-05 15:15)