Re: Last Saturday (374 Views)
Date: March 09, 2005 04:24PM
TGJB,
>Relationship to par can reflect either the level of the horses or the efforts of the figure maker <
I agree, but the thing you are not acknowledging is that VIRTUALLY EVERY SINGLE STAKES CALIBER RACE in every category including Sweet Catomine has run a dreadful Beyer relative to the Stakes PAR in 2005.
How can you argue that all these figures are inflated "in general".
That would mean every stakes caliber dirt category in CA is WAY below average.
It is clear that some of the horses in at least some of the categories are decent and have run similar or better figures outside of CA?
If we lower all these figures across the board then they all become total mules on the Beyer scale!
>It's also why second and third line Eastern horses like Supah Blitz and Congrats (basically the same horse as ETS) have been able to do well in graded stakes in California. <
Yes of course Congrats ran better. The eastern horses are better. However, he is running slower Beyers. If the CA Beyers were inflated he would be running better "and faster".
There is no evidence that the CA Beyer's are inflated "on average". There may be a race or day here or there that is inflated. But that is to be expected. There are some races that seem too low here or there too. Beyer has some CA races slower than you do.
Furthermore, since there are other people that make Beyer scale figures, we would notice if the CA Beyer figures were out of whack with those other figure makers. They are not.
You may have extraordinary knowledge about your own scale and the relationships between various circuits.
You may have extraordinary knowledge about certain ciruits where there are inconsistencies between the Beyer figures and your own, where the evidence indicates you are right.
I also understand that you are arguing for the superiority of your product, but I believe you are barking up the wrong tree when you say CA is inflated in general unless you are talking about a specific CA race or day.
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