Re: Last Saturday (386 Views)
Posted by:
TGJB (IP Logged)
Date: March 09, 2005 03:36PM
Look at ROTW, where I talked about lots of reasons St. Liam might not fire, look at my post after the Sunshine Millions where I talked about errors in the Beyers from around the country, relative to California, look at my comments on the other string about this.
Relationship to par can reflect either the level of the horses or the efforts of the figure maker (think score and course rating in golf). As I said in an earlier post, the older dirt horses in California stink, and have for a while-- that's why we brought out Even The Score, who hadn't been able to win any kind of stake in the East and Midwest, and he won two G2s, and was favored in a GI.
It's also why second and third line Eastern horses like Supah Blitz and Congrats (basically the same horse as ETS) have been able to do well in graded stakes in California. Take a look at the makeup of that Big Cap field, as I said before-- other than St. Liam, how had those horses done in the East?
Seperate from the cicuit-to-circuit issues, Beyer had the Goodwood and the Strub way too fast, relative to both the San Antonio and Big Cap. And independent of this small sampling, he has had California too fast relative to other circuits for a long time.
TGJB