Re: Five Weeks Rest (480 Views)
Posted by:
beyerguy (IP Logged)
Date: April 04, 2005 04:53PM
HP,
It's not appropriate because it does not deal with TG numbers. I can't go back in history and see what so and so ran for a TG figure, I can only do that with my own.
I'll give a quick example, Azeri's 2004 campaign, since I have the TG numbers handy. She returned at Oaklawn earning a Beyer style speed figure of 116. I don't know if that's the actual Beyer, but it is the same scale. Her pace number was 103.
She didn't go two turns again until Saratoga, where she went 107 pace, 109 final. Faster pace = slower race. Yes, she was wider, but that also means she was running a faster early than that 107 gives credit for.
She next was ran into submission, the Storm Flag Flying race, and I gave her a pace-speed combo of 113-96.
Her final pre BC race was the Spinster at Kee, where she went 98-100 in what was essientally a workout, and she was wide the whole way. Taking ground into account (which I don't do normally, not because I don't want to, but because it isn't possible for me) would have put this race right around the 107-109 she got at Saratoga.
So, we have:
103-116 (TG -1.5)
107-109 (TG -1.5)
113-96 (TG 2 hot pace designation)
98-100 (TG -1.5)
Breeder's Cup, Azeri got a TG 1.5, which I would attribute to having to run faster early than she is comfortable with keeping up with the boys, even though she wasn't up front.
This is not rare, especially with top class horses. These numbers take weight into account, but not ground as I've said.