Re: Five Weeks Rest (446 Views)
Posted by:
beyerguy (IP Logged)
Date: April 05, 2005 11:43AM
OK, lets keep it on TG terms. When she went too fast at Saratoga, she ran much slower, a 2. Thus, when she runs slower early, she finishes in faster time.
TG designates this with a h_pace rating, which is great. They obviously believe extreme paces can affect final time. TG chooses not to measure this factor. That is fine too. It doesn't mean it can't be done.
There is a range where the final time will stay pretty consistent, and it is not a small range either. But, once you get outside that range, on either side, the final time is going to slow down. If the horses go too fast early, they will decelerate at a much higher rate late. If they go way too slow early, they can't possibly run fast enough at the end to compensate. This is very common in turf routes as I'm sure TG has discovered, but it does occasionally happen on dirt as well.