This is a heck of a race. Imagine tossing the favorite, Afleet Alex, who shows 6 of the 7 fastest figures in the race. Only Flower Alley's last is equal to Afleet Alex's secondary top. Yet given the dismal performance last out closely following the negative effort 1st out this year, the lack of development last year, 9 furlong distance, and finally favoritism, it's not unreasonable to take a shot against him. Yet if he wins, we can't profess surprise.

Briefly:

Batson Challenge (30-1)--not a bad pattern but he hasn't improved from his 2yo top, so it's not a particularly good pattern either. He's slowest, gets in at 118 and gets the rail with a good jock atop. A new top wouldn't surprise but it's tough to see him improving enough to be a factor here.

Andromeda's Hero (10-1)--got back to his top last out, a good sign, but he should have done it quicker. Like Batson Challenge this guy hasn't developed off his 2yo top yet. Can't like that too much. Saved ground in last and will probably do so again although a new jock rides. The Thoro-Pattern (TP)gives him a little better than 1 in 5 shot of improving, 1 in 3 of pairing, but a new top may not do it and a pair won't.

Canteen (12-1)--who's the vet?

Rush Bay (12-1)--got back to top in last, 1st time blinkers, 2nd out at 3, a good sign. THe TP shows about the same percentages as the first two above, and although this guy hasn't developed off 2yo top, he is faster than the other two. He's bred to love the distance and should be coming late although a wide trip looms due to his running style. He's also bred to be late developer so can he, will he move forward here? Remember 3yos tend to pair in spring.

Flower Alley (9-2)--lightly raced 3yo, hasn't backed up yet and his last is the best among these excepting the favorite. Only a 2-1/2 point move in last, he could react but there's a pretty good chance he won't either; a pair seems most likely, espcially on 3 weeks rest. And that obviously makes very viable here.

Afleet Alex (2-1)--see above.

Wild Desert (6-1)--jumped up 4 points in last, an intermediate to big move. Forward movement is always good, and this guy is getting good at the right time. Another coming back on 3 weeks rest. Has done a lot of work to get where's he at. Tend to think a pair up is most likely which makes him contentious although ground loss is probable.

Real Dandy (20-1)--made a slight forward move in last but still has to jump to have any shot and another small move won't help. Five weeks rest coming into this, it's possible he could jump. The pattern is solid but sire-wise he's hit the development limit and just may be mired at this level for a while.

Cat Shaker (30-1)--shows a retop in his last three but shows a history of reacting to tops. He's slow, drawn wide, and would have to move up to contend. Has been alternating efforts and is due for an off effort. Has already developed 4 points this year and just might not have more in him at this point. Moves up on a wet track.

Greater Good (5-2)--has never backed up and made a nice forward move last time down to his top. On the face this guy's contentious but the outside post works against him. He's a one run closer, a good one, but a closer nonetheless, and thus likely to confront traffic. Pop was a sprinter and granddaddy was Secretariat's first good son. Granddaddy won the Travers, I believe on a very wet track, but at 10 furlongs. This guy could pair but still finish out of money. Three of the others are as fast or faster. Underlay.