four problems with AA last out - 3/5 odds, rockport in the race, a lung infection (which we didn't know about), and a wicked fast 7f run a week before the race. none of those factors at play here. i'm expecting a good run from AA. i think he will track an average pace, and run well through the stretch. i give him a 3-1 shot to win in this relatively weak field. the odds will determine my play. i do not think this horse will fast a fast 10f though.