Another slow night on the job, another rambling, non- scientific, subjective post. The topic: The Great Wall of Zito, aka the Beast with 16 Hooves.

In Friday/ Saturday DRF, Crist and Beyer have basically sent up the white smoke and annointed BELLAMY ROAD. Crist says he can bounce kind of drastically and still win the Derby; Beyer says he is "head and withers" above the rest. 3 of the last 5 Derby winners prepped in the Wood; BR's daddy ran in the Derby. The hype is just beginning on this colt, the Boss Steinbrenner angle will be played up, and even in a 20 horse field this guy could be 9/5 at post time.

HIGH FLY: The knocks are his lack of a race in the last 60 days (no horse has won with this sort of spacing since 1956)and the fact that he has only competed over two tracks, Calder and Gulfstream. To me the biggest knock is the ease with which he won his races (basically perfect tripped in each win.) What is the likelihood of a perfect trip in a 20 horse field?

My subjective view of his breeding: Sire Atticus (mile/turf) Dam Verbasle (all day long, lean towards turf).

To me HF should be 15-20/1, but will be 8-/1 due to the presence of Bailey.

SUN KING: The big mystery. Perhaps NZ has too much confidence in this guy, running him in the BC Juvie without a 2 turn prep. Impressed no one at Tampa. Who knows what seasoning/conditioning he got out of the BG? Daddy won the Derby. Could go off at 15-20/1, no consolation to someone (me) who owns him in the futures at 10/1. I dont think even NZ knows what to expect of this colt on May 7.

NOBLE CAUSEWAY: Since 93, only Real Quiet and Funny Cide won the Derby without a previous stake win in their 3YO campaign. Only Sea Hero won without having previously recorded a Beyer over 100. He should be the only non stakes winner to face the starter on May 7. His daddy ran a wide 2nd to Tiznow in the BC Classic at Churchill, his first and only dirt race. If he weren't part of the Zito brigade, he would go off at odds of 30-40/1.

OVERVIEW:(1) NZ has done a classy job of balancing the Derby Dreams of 4 different owners and keeping all 4 of these animals sound (as far as we know); he has been careful to be diplomatic about the chances of all of them. I think he wishes that he could have the luxury of holding Sun King and/or Noble Causeway out of the Derby and pointed to the Preakness/ Belmont, but the 5 million TC bonus means that the days of pointing towards legs 2 and 3 of the Triple Crown are gone. NZ probably is one step ahead and has an idea of which colts he wants to send where (Preakness, Belmont, Travers)after the Derby.

(2) BELLAMY could be this years Ghostzapper in that we are all afraid to believe what the TG#s, the Beyers and our own eyes tell us: that this is a brilliantly fast colt who may be peaking at the right time. I will try to beat him, but will not be surprised if he beats me. Beat him with who? I have about 15 days and 10 or so hours (thanks for the clock TGJB) to figure it all out.