Author: jbelfior
Date: 04-22-05 07:44

I looked at the PP's for past derby winners. My feeling is one would be stabbing if one were to consider, in the win spot, anyone who did not finish first or second in their last start and/or did not pair-up or move forward.

If you're going to regress before the Derby, it better only be once, slight, and off of a new top....eliminate SUN KING for one, CONSOLIDATOR as another.

I'm not that certain about Consolidator. You need to see him in the post parade. In his two '05 clunkers he was a nervous lathered up mess. If he's cool, calm collected it would be hard to ignore him.
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

It also looks as if it will take somewhere around a zero TG # to win this, if not a neg #. Now I know this does not sound like rocket science talk, but you would be amazed at how many this will eliminate, some of which the crowd will bet.

Agreed, but for super/tri players, it'll be difficult not to spread.

********************************************

Example: Does anyone think NOBLE CAUSEWAY can improve AGAIN to the level required to win this? Obviously Edgar Prado feels this colt is a month away. Wouldn't one eliminate the entire group behind AFLEET ALEX?

Perhaps Flower Alley bottom of tri/super.

NC has developed nearly 7pts how much more does he have short term? It's anyones guess.
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Why would one consider WILKO? How does he improve to a performance level capable of winning the Derby? You wouldn't believe how many people I know that like this guy.

Wilko's 3yo debut was an intermediate top and with the 3w4w SAD trip, he may have broken thru his 2yo top and would be a strong line coming into the Derby; maybe not the top slot, but very useable underneath at a big price. BRIS gave him a new triple digit top and perhaps the TG fig is much better than we think, i.e. Sweet Catomine.
****************************************

High Fly a new small top to a 1.0



May they all come home safely!