Wow, what a race!

Initially I thought only one of 3 could win. But after reviewing it closely, I'm not sure you can exclude any. Certainly from the money.

Don't Get Mad - is a very interesting horse here. He gets to cut back to one turn which seems to be his preferred course. He gets to eyeball them all from the outside hole which is a plus with his running style in my opinion and also a scenario that worked twice well for him at CD in the past. They are taking him off lasix for the race and his last two on lasix were shakey. Whether it was the juice or not is debateable.

Big Top Cat - could finally be on the improve. He's got one major point going for him. He's quick. Maybe the quickest of these and that and the one turn could play to his benefit. I think they'll wear him down late, but wouldn't be surprised if Lukas got a little more out of him in this spot. I think he's a one turn horse. Theres no Lost in the Fog in this race.

Santana Springs - Whats not to like? Since T Graph got involved hes run extremely well twice with blinkers. The experiment without looked to set him back slightly so he's got them on. He's got a good trainer. He handled a horse last (Around the Cape) that had handled him large prior. Looks like the blinkers helped to me. He laid a little closer to the pace last and got beat by a good horse. Is TGraphs client maybe taking advantage of White Mercedes? I suppose bounce has to be the fear, but the horse has never really bounced. He bled at Arlington.

Vicarage - Horror trip last. I'm tossing it. Has a nice O-X pattern going. I'll be surprised if he doesnt toss a good one here.

Miracle Man - More a question of what has he beat I think. Big wins at Keeneland don't hold much stock with me. Especially in 1:26, which means the next closest horse ran about a 1:28...whoa doggies!

Ultimate - got handled by around the cape in his first. STill his big figure win is a maiden race and I discount those. He has been bet to death and that TP stakes was not a bad race. It is Zito. It is Kentucky. Tough Call.

Crimson Stag - Still has not moved past his 2yo top. I would think a 2 point move is not unreasonable in the circumstances. His DeD race was against crap in all likelihood, but that is not an easy track to win on as he did. I'm tossing the turf race and put little stock in the Keeneland blow out. He did beat Razor by .5, a horse Santana beat by 2. Big Balloon chance, especially at 15-1 plus. Giving weight and slower figures is a concern. I just think hes poised to run well is all.

Gallarado - Like this horse the least. Since it is Baffert, he'll probably win.

What a race.



Post Edited (04-30-05 10:59)