Re: Derby Trial Madness, Crimson Stag (431 Views)
Posted by:
Chuckles_the_Clown2 (IP Logged)
Date: April 30, 2005 12:40PM
Well, I'm not entirely displeased to hear that. I was going to hook him up underneath and apparently he wasn't ready for the improved effort it was gonna take to land him a piece.
I guess I'm down to the top four now. Its gonna be a question of odds.
I believe Big Top Cat has the best chance to run on improved race on being advantaged in the spot. I make him 30% to win the race.
Depending upon the track I like Vicarage second best on some consistent low numbers, excuse and pattern. I have some doubts about his ability to run on with a fair track under him, but i make him about 25% to win the race.
Don't get mad has run no faster than Big Top Cat and still hasn't paired his 2YO top, but circumstances are similarly breaking his way this race and I think he's gonna move forward here. I make him about 20% to win.
Santana Springs has done nothing wrong, but I do get the sense he may prefer 6 marks and hes been a little weaker at 7. This race is 8 and I make his winning chance at about 15%.
Big Top Cat 5-2
Vicarage 3-1
Dont Get Mad 4-1
Santana Springs 7-1
The Zito and Hennig horses have a chance, especially for the money, but i'm discounting them almost entirely for the win. I'd want 20-1 on them and dont' think I'll see it.
Post Edited (04-30-05 13:17)