CTC,

IMO, Don't Get Mad has had an excuse in last 3 races. This might be the first time he's going to get a chance to show how good he actually is in quite awhile.

The SA Derby was slow paced and he was way in the back.

The San Felipe was run over a rolled wet fast track that looked to be playing to speed.

The San Vincente was a slow paced sprint and he closed very strongly in a fast final 1/8.

Unfortunately, there may not be much value betting on him even though I'm pretty sure he's better than his figures make him look. He's an oddity because the CA stakes horses are weak, but he is better than he looks within that group.

Vicarage's last race is a total toss out. The pace of the Fl Derby was too quick for him. He got hung out wide and was used hard to stay in contention. Plus he's no 9F horse at this time. The track/pace carried him in the LA Derby. I think he's more of 7F horse than a miler, but this race should be within his range.

Miracle man prompted a reasonably quick pace and can probably run a little faster than it looks under more moderate conditions. I like undefeated horses.

Santana Strings last race was very fast, but I think there's at least some chance he prefers running shorter distances like 6F. If he does stretch out well, he'll be tough to beat off his last.

Ultimate was also used early in his last and is not bad.

Big Top Cat has some good races, but may also prefer 6F-7F more than 8F.

The problem with this race is that the horses most likely to get bet by the public (Vicarage and Don't Get Mad) had legitimate excuses for their recent "dull looking" and slow performances. So it's probably going to be tough to bet on them or against them unless you can find another quality horse perfectly suited to the distance etc... I don't see any obvious candidates.



Post Edited (04-30-05 14:56)