I guess Jimbo and High Roller won't be sharing that box at the Derby after all...

Great week coming up. Belmont opening day Wednesday (100th anniversary), the Big Event Saturday, and on Sunday a flight to West Palm for five days of golf with my pop, who I haven't seen in a year. Of course the rainy day contingency plans include the Kennel Club near the West Palm airport, one of my favorite simo destinations.

I don't need to pick one winner of the Derby. I need to pick a team of possible winners to use in the two gimmicks I plan on playing: The Oaks/ Derby double (is it even being offered this year?)(I know it is a gimmick in the strictest sense of the word, but when else can you be alive in a double for 24 hours?)and the CD Pick 4 which ends with the Derby.

I have Wilko, Noble Causeway and Sun King in futures. If Wilko or SK win, its a rather nice score and it will be the first time I hit the future bet since it has been widely offered.

Two unscientific gut feelings:
1) Bellamy either wins or is out of the Tri.
2) An unheralded jockey/ trainer combo from the Delaware Valley will NOT win the roses for the second straight year.

Two Derby gurus-- Lukas and Zito-- account for 7 of the 20 entries in the race. Todd Pletcher, who will eventually probably end up with more Ky. Derbies than either of the gurus, will saddle 3. 10 out of 20 from 3 barns. The winner will emerge from these 10, IMO. I would be ashamed to make such an obvious prediction except that 9 out of these 10 could offer very good value.

ZITO
Br 5/2
High Fly 10/1
Noble Causeway 12/1
Sun King 20/1
Andromeda 30/1

PLETCHER
Bandini 8/1
Flower Alley 30/1
Coin Silver 40/1

LUKAS
Consolidator 25/1
Going Wild 60/1

ZITO:I have already given my unscientific take on BR. He looked tremendous behind the gate at the Wood and has supposedly trained brilliantly at CD (DRF correspondents have been impressed with BR and Hi Fly, not so impressed with SK and NC).

Hi Fly: Like recent Derby winners Grindstone, Monarchos, Funny Cide and Smarty, he will be attempting to win the Derby in his 7th start. Odds on in 5 of his 6 lifetime starts, my take on the Fla Derby is that Bailey had something left, that he could have held NC safe for another 1/8th mile. To me Bailey and Gary Stevens are the 2 jocks you want in a 10 furlong race with a 20 horse field.

Sun King: The Bluegrass was enigmatic. His only stakes win was the Tampa Bay Derby. If trained by anyone other than Lukas or Zito, he probably would be every bit of 50/1, with good reason-- he's not as fast and not as classy as many of his competitors

NC: Look for a late move in the Derby and a trip to the Belmont.

Andromeda's Hero-- Man, I'm tired of hearing how he galloped out past AA in the Ark Derby. But he could end up in tri/super at a big mutuel.

PLETCHER: IMO, Flower Alley and Coin Silver will only factor if the track is sloppy or muddy.

Bandini: Like his pop, FuPeg, he will attempt to win the Derby in his 6th lifetime start, off 3 sharp two turn races. Pletcher/John V will win Derby eventually-- maybe this year at 8/1?. Like High Fly and Noble Causeway (and 11 of the 12 previous Derby winners), he ran a Beyer of 100 or above in his final Derby prep.

LUKAS: Consolidator: Like Sun King, an enigmatic Bluegrass. Like Sun King, if he weren't trained by a Derby guru we probably wouldn't be looking. Hard to like off that one brilliant performance, but you don't want to have him beat you and have to listen to Lukas post race tell you he told you so. One of three in the race who has raced at CD (Greater Good, Don't Get Mad the others).

Going Wild: To me, a speed horse who shows less and less speed in each of his races. He seems to have peaked in his SA races, and like others have said, only Lukas would run an animal like this off the two awful runs in the Wood and the Lex. Done after 1/2.

Team "Gimmick"-- Bandini, High Fly, Consolidator, and possibly add the "future 3"-- SK, Noble Causeway, and Wilko. If there is an Oaks/ Derby double, Dance Away Capote with those 6, $20 doubles.

The shadow of Big Chalk is cast over the gimmicks I want to play: Sis City in the Oaks and Madcap Escapade in the Humana Distaff; I need some "spice" in the Derby and the Woodford Reserve turf race.



Post Edited (05-02-05 10:24)