richiebee wrote:

> West Palm for five days of golf with my pop, who I haven't seen
> in a year. Of course the rainy day contingency plans include
> the Kennel Club near the West Palm airport, one of my favorite
> simo destinations.

Golf with pop is better than a big trifecta.


> I have Wilko, Noble Causeway and Sun King in futures. If Wilko
> or SK win, its a rather nice score and it will be the first
> time I hit the future bet since it has been widely offered.

Good Luck

> Two unscientific gut feelings:
> 1) Bellamy either wins or is out of the Tri.

Agreed

> 2) An unheralded jockey/ trainer combo from the Delaware Valley
> will NOT win the roses for the second straight year.

Not as sure of that

> Two Derby gurus-- Lukas and Zito-- account for 7 of the 20
> entries in the race. Todd Pletcher, who will eventually
> probably end up with more Ky. Derbies than either of the gurus,
> will saddle 3. 10 out of 20 from 3 barns. The winner will
> emerge from these 10, IMO. I would be ashamed to make such an
> obvious prediction except that 9 out of these 10 could offer

Not a bad prediction.

>
> PLETCHER
> Bandini 8/1
> Flower Alley 30/1
> Coin Silver 40/1
>
> LUKAS
> Consolidator 25/1
> Going Wild 60/1

I think Bandini will be lower. The key of course is Bellamania

>supposedly Bellamania
> trained brilliantly at CD

I can't draw that conclusion, unless its based upon the Wood result.

> Hi Fly: Like recent Derby winners Grindstone, Monarchos, Funny
> Cide and Smarty, he will be attempting to win the Derby in his
> 7th start. Odds on in 5 of his 6 lifetime starts, my take on
> the Fla Derby is that Bailey had something left, that he could
> have held NC safe for another 1/8th mile.

I agree, the variable is perhaps laying close to a faster pace, but then Noble Causeway will have to get a trip too. I'm not positive Noble Causeway is a stout a closer as all that as well.

> To me Bailey and Gary
> Stevens are the 2 jocks you want in a 10 furlong race with a 20
> horse field.

can't argue with that


> Sun King: The Bluegrass was enigmatic. His only stakes win was
> the Tampa Bay Derby. If trained by anyone other than Lukas or
> Zito, he probably would be every bit of 50/1, with good
> reason-- he's not as fast and not as classy as many of his
> competitors

I'm not sold on Sun King either. At my peril I'm currently considering him only for fourth.

> Andromeda's Hero-- Man, I'm tired of hearing how he galloped
> out past AA in the Ark Derby. But he could end up in tri/super
> at a big mutuel.

The late slow gallop is what the DRF refers to as "Little doubt a horse will relish 10 marks"

> PLETCHER: IMO, Flower Alley and Coin Silver will only factor if
> the track is sloppy or muddy.

Not near as certain of that

> Bandini: Like his pop, FuPeg, he will attempt to win the Derby
> in his 6th lifetime start, off 3 sharp two turn races.
> Pletcher/John V will win Derby eventually-- maybe this year at
> 8/1?. Like High Fly and Noble Causeway (and 11 of the 12
> previous Derby winners), he ran a Beyer of 100 or above in his
> final Derby prep.

Bandini is the biggest variable in the race

> LUKAS: Consolidator: Like Sun King, an enigmatic Bluegrass.
> Like Sun King, if he weren't trained by a Derby guru we
> probably wouldn't be looking. Hard to like off that one
> brilliant performance, but you don't want to have him beat you
> and have to listen to Lukas post race tell you he told you so.

He's out. My guess is it started in the San Felipe. He was tardy early in the Blue Grass.

> Going Wild: To me, a speed horse who shows less and less speed
> in each of his races. He seems to have peaked in his SA races,
> and like others have said, only Lukas would run an animal like
> this off the two awful runs in the Wood and the Lex. Done after
> 1/2.

Maybe, but hes working good again. He doesnt fit the Lukas Derby winner profile and I wont bet him to win. Then again, if he looks great I may put a duce on him. I think he could get the lead. He wants the lead and once there I'm not sure he's gonna let the others by easy.



Post Edited (05-02-05 11:35)