I make four horses contenders. Sunday, Fast, Al and Deputy. My guess is the only horse you're gonna get your "break even" odds on is Deputy. I make him the least likely winner of the four. Does that mean you'll bet him at 12-1 if the others go off below "break even"? And do you think with Deputy at 12-1 the "break even odds" have any relationship to the actual probability of that horse winning the race? I've seen a couple of these projections you've posted in this regard and I haven't seen that relationship. If your posting your personal discipline thats fine, but call it that.

Good Luck,

Tabitha