Re: 80% of Spring time 3yr olds regress (389 Views)
Posted by:
jimbo66 (IP Logged)
Date: May 08, 2005 10:11AM
I am not piling on Jerry and don't necessarily agree with all of Miff's comments, but there are several things about the Derby yesterday that are not explainable.
You, as well as Beyer and Ragozin all "dissed" the California horses this year, saying they were slower than everybody else and all the other circuits. The California races were the only ones where you didn't assign "super high" figs to. (For the record, I was completely in agreement with this after watching those races and thus am not pointing the finger, just discussing a point). The California horses filled out 4 of the top 6 slots in the Derby yesterday.
High Limit had one of the best looking T-Graph patterns in this race and was your "value of the race". A lot of posters on this board (myself included), thought he had no shot, based on other factors like pace and seasoning. He ran last.
T-Graph continues to espouse "well rested" horses in the Derby with light campaigns. Bellamy Road had 2 preps, finished 7th, High Limit had 2 preps, finished last. Giacomo had a 2 year old foundation, 3 preps, wins the race. Afleet Alex had the best 2 year old foundation, 3 preps, comes in a close 3rd. Five weeks rest for High Fly and Noble Causeway, both with pretty nice T-Graph figures and pattersn, nowhere at the finish.
I think that a lot of what happened in this year's race points to the fact that traditional "T-Graph" tenents and principles don't hold up well in the Derby. It is a race unlike any other and should be handicapped as such.
That said, I could have handicapped a year and a half and not had this race right.....