Re: 80% of Spring time 3yr olds regress (364 Views)
Posted by:
dlf (IP Logged)
Date: May 08, 2005 11:03AM
Jimbo, how about this for an explanation:
California, I believe, began doing the new and improved drug-testing before any of the other racing jurisdictions (i.e NYRA got a late start at AQU, and is only going full steam ahead with detention barns, etc. with the start of the Belmont meet. Florida and Louisiana didn't change a thing, as far as I know.)
In other words, California has been "clean" for most of the year, and because of it, the horses were running slower numbers. On the other hand the Florida, Louisiana and New York runners were not getting tested, their trainers knew it, and juiced them. So quite naturally, uh, should I say unnaturally, these horses ran higher figures than their West Coast counterparts.
Then we arrive at the Kentucky Derby with a level playing field. The West Coast horses run to their ability, and all the others crash and burn when their drugs are taken away. I know this sounds damn conspiratorial, but it seems plausible. It certainly explains how all the speed figure gurus could have been so "wrong".