Re: 80% of Spring time 3yr olds regress (361 Views)
Posted by:
Chuckles_the_Clown2 (IP Logged)
Date: May 08, 2005 12:11PM
miff wrote:
> CtC,
>
> I'm not questioning the BG as a race. The figs awarded to
> several runners were out of whack with racing reality, starting
> with Bandini and including Sun King and High Limit.
There were two monumentally tough races to figure coming into this Derby: The Bluegrass and Wood. It will be some time before we can confirm those races (If ever).
My evolving perception was High Limit indeed did run a 1 in the Bluegrass and maybe a better 1 than at first appeared. He chased a burner of a speed horse. He got near the rail late and he jumped tracks. He almost went down at one point. The question was whether he could get to the lead or rate. No Classic horse is gonna outfoot Spanish Chestnut. That horse is a monster and should be pointed to the Met Mile, but prolly needs a break. Bandini on aided bias was probably not that much better than High Limit and Sun King on aided bias was probably not that close to Closing Argument. Bandini's top to me was not a 7 point top. It was a 5 point top. Still it was too much.
Bellamania ran a good Derby all things considered. Does that confirm the Negative 5 wood? Maybe, but maybe it also indicates the Wood didn't take as much out of him as Bandini's Bluegrass because the Wood wasnt as large a top. He certainly regressed. The question is did he regress on bounce or on pace?
Sun King is looking shaky around the second turn if you discount the Bluegrass a couple points on aiding bias is his Derby finish at 10 marks that difficult to digest?
This could all be wrong. My wagers didn't come close to that Derby. Giacomo, Closing and Buzzard were all gonna beat my tickets out if they finished anywhere but 4th. Fantastic for review, never seen a race like that before.
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