Re: The Jerry Brown Strategy (484 Views)
Posted by:
TGJB (IP Logged)
Date: May 09, 2005 03:21PM
CH-- As usual, you totally ignore the points, which include that you posted here right after the Ashland that her loss was predictable due to her not being as good as she looked at FG. Now she came back and beat the same fillies she lost to-- is your analysis of the ashland still valid?
Horses run to different levels of ability in different races. That's why we put them on graphs, that's why we create Thoro-Patterns-- we know it's a game of percentages. We know better than to assign hard and fast cause and effect relationship relationships, like you do.
You had several opinions going into the Derby, which included some horses you liked (some of whom were closers behind a fast pace) that did not run well. Does that mean your reasoning on them was wrong? Or is the only test of your reasoning HL?
Focus on my point-- we DON'T KNOW at this point whether the drug testing stopped HL, although there is some EVIDENCE (not proof) that it was a factor over the two days. IF it was, there is no way to evaluate his performance, since he may have been a different horse than he would otherwise have been-- and a reply of "I didn't like him anyway" is besides the point.
TGJB