CH

I am with you on High Limit. I posted before the race, as you did, that I thought he had no shot. I was surprised to see he was JB's play, but I do understand the reasoning, his pattern did look good and he looked likely to fire a good race in the Derby, based on his pattern. JB has been pretty clear that pace is not often factored into his selections, except as to the associated ground loss. After listening to the seminar, I wrote off High limit as one of those "methodology plays" that a sheets player might like, but I couldn't play becaus of pace concerns.

So, I see your point in the Derby that High Limit was pace hindered and it was very foreseeable BEFORE the race, regardless of injuries and drugs. However, that doesn't mean injuries and drugs were not a factor. We just don't know.

But I really think you are out in left field on Summerly and the Oaks. What race were you watching where Summerly got a soft pace and no pressure and that was the driving force behind her win? Sis City pushed her into the first turn, sat on her shoulder the entire race, drew even on the far turn, and then Summerly kicked away. I thought that Summerly was a play based on T-Graph figures BEFORE the race, and posted as such. She was AS FAST as Sis City before the Ashland. Sis City freaked in the Ashland, Summerly didn't run at all. That race was at Keenland. Almost anybody would agree that at times keenland races have to be looked carefully and sometimes discounted as many horses LOVE that track and others don't run a lick on it. Before the Ashland both horses were around the "3" level on T=Graph. So, Sis City at 3-5 was an underlay relative to 9-2 on Summerly.

Pace didn't make the race at Keenland and didn't make the race at Churchill Downs.

You can't fit every race under the "pace" category.

Derby this year, maybe.

Oaks this year, probably not.