Re: Briefly (490 Views)
Date: May 09, 2005 10:55AM
Silver,
>For those who posted Summerly lost at Keeneland because she couldn't handle a pressured pace... wrong<
I want to comment on this because I think it's relevant to a lot of things that aren't clear to me.
I'm not sure what the correct figure for Sis City's big race actually is. We should keep in mind that no one else had that race really fast.
a. If the race was really fast, then Summerly's performance within it was not especially out of line with prior performances. It would actually be fairly consistent with the view that she would not run as fast and win as easily with pace pressure as without it. I know I didn't expect her to get beaten that badly. I just expected her to lose. However, a really dominant speed/pace performance often "takes out" many of the other horses.
b. If the Sis City race was not that fast, then Summerly's performance that day was dreadful. If that's the case, then she didn't run poorly because of pace considerations. She ran that poorly for other reasons. In fact, I said as much on another board. However, that does not mean that I was wrong about her prior races with loose leads in easy paces not being as good as they looked.
I haven't seen Summerly's figure for this recent win (more of a legit performance), but I'd guess it wasn't much faster than she had run in her prior races despite making the lead and being loose for a portion of the race. She certainly didn't win as easy or all wrapped up the way she did when she was loose and loafing.
Post Edited (05-09-05 12:50)