Re: Patterns going into the Preakness (513 Views)
Posted by:
Chuckles_the_Clown2 (IP Logged)
Date: May 13, 2005 01:15PM
youre focusing on the word "work". If he drilled the horse twice a day that would be another issue.
hes getting the horse out for ground work twice a day. Factor that negatively at your peril.
The interesting thing is that you ask me for anecdotal evidence that two a days are beneficial and your premise implies that they are not, yet what anecdotal evidence do you present to support that theory? The horse ran the most impressive Derby prep of all and it may have taken something out of him, but the bounce is just as likely upon 3YO foundation as anything else and that is what I have attributed the bounce to. That is my opinion.
On the other hand a horse like Sweet Cat jogs with gauze on her foot and that is acceptable to those that scrutinize training. Not to imply that it was acceptable to you HP, thats not known. Certain things are more relevant than others is what the point is.
One last point. Most of my handicapping is based on very careful horse review, figure review and in depth scrutiny. If upon that basis the horse is a play to me, I could generally care less what the probabiities are, both on the board and the bounce statistics. (Perhaps bounce will be factored more carefully in the future however)It backfired in the Derby and has to be candidly admitted. But who here singled either Giacomo or Closing Argument with conviction? Granting Bandini has big in my wagers as well.
Post Edited (05-13-05 13:48)