Re: Patterns going into the Preakness (471 Views)
Date: May 13, 2005 07:01PM
Between all the tough trips and the impact of pace I think it's very difficult to translate these performances into reasonably accurate numbers.
I am attempting to seperate the horses by looking at relative trips like High Fly vs. Flower Alley (who finished close and had similar trips), Closing Argument vs. Afleet Alex etc... When I figure out which of each pairing I like better, I'll make an attempt to match up the less similar finishers.
I also think it makes more sense than usual to simply toss out the figures of some horses you know had a very tough time and base your appraisal of the horse on his form coming into the Derby (assuming there isn't clear evidence of a change).