TGJB wrote:

> If
> you use pars you will not allow horses to be getting faster.
>


This is confusing. Certainly you can't use ten year old pars. What the raw times were in their respective classes on the surface 10 years ago may not be relevant for a number of reasons. One is that the surface itself may have changed. Another is that the efforts have changed (For better or worse). If you're not prepared to accept the litany of discovered drugs is helping horses run faster, perhaps they are slower due to speed breeding and inbreeding? It just seems that a reference point for the class of individual races has great value, even with the high expertise model of assigning figures comparatively. To use pars, having up to date Pars for the previous year are essential. (Obviously, that gets tough with a race like the Belmont Stakes, due to how rarely the distance and class is run.)

The movement away from pars is a movement away from questionable science towards greater expertise on the subjective aspect of figure making. When the experts are comparing every horse in a race and every horse on a card with a vast history of back numbers it gives the number more collaboration. But there certainly is a heightened subjectivity.

I personally believe TGraph is dead on with horses running faster. But, its very cheap drug induced speed that can come unraveled in the right circumstances. These are not Secretariats or Spectacular Bids. These are mojo animals.



Post Edited (05-29-05 20:06)