Let's take a shot at the card. Spent most of last night torn between handicapping the Belmont card and getting sick watching the Pistons and my 5-2 series bet get off to bad start.

I think I am "cycling" to a winning day. Maybe this Saturday...

1st Race - Can't make a win bet this race. Can't find a reason to bet against Contrast. May use her in doubles and will consider exactas over Aces Capella and Factual Contender, as those two look more likely to finish 2nd than the shorter odds horses.

2nd Race - Tough race. Lots of horses running in the same range. The favorites aren't any faster than some of the longer priced horses. Gonna use Positively Wild, She's Sterling and Deflation in the doubles, with Contrast. Probably take a shot at a win bet on either She's Sterling or Deflation at square odds. Both are fast enough and get good jockey changes.

3rd Race - Hoping Ice Wynd and fire goes off the favorite. Inclined to forgive the last race for Yankee Mon, as it was at 1 1/8. Might get back to her good one the race before. Respect Dwango also, off of two figures that could win this, but don't like the slight regression last time.

4th Race - Storm Minstrel and Strategy are both "bet againsts". Neither is faster than several others and they figure 1st and 2nd favorites. Judy Soda's last was real fast, she could bounce 3 points and still win. At 5-1 ML, worth play. Also a little interested in Game Card. Two back, ran a "4", which is better than anybody else in this race, except Judy Soda. Regressed a little last time, but if Judy bounces badly, this one has a shot at square odds.

5th Race - Another favorite to bet against. Night Chapter and his paired "4"s just make him a moderate contender. No value as the favorite. Willing to take a shot with No Parole here. Will be 12-1 or so, and has three races last year, on the turf, all at Belmont, right in a row, that make him very tough here. His first race this year was a little slow, but the "buried 5" is not terrible and there is reason to believe we could see his typical "Belmont" race here. Will use with Not Phone and Provincetown.

6th Race - I like Key Deputy here, especially at the weights. His last puts him maybe 1 point off the fastest in here, but with the weight he gets, that makes him co-fastest. That last race at Churchill was a "key race" for those that believe in that theory. 5 of the 7 have come back to run, with all five finishing 1st or 2nd. Post 12 is tough, but the colt has natural speed and should be able to get a spot without losing much ground. Will use in exactas with Smokeume, With Distinction, and longshot Aggadan. Would normally like Smokeume in this spot on top, but can't bet chantal Sutherland against the top jockeys in a big field. Have to let her beat me.

7th Race - Intercontinental will be a tough favorite here. Willing to take a shot with Sand Spring though. Got back to a "3" in her last, just off her previous top of "2". Gets a six pound pull in the weights from Intercontinental, which makes her as fast, on her best. This horse MUST break well though. Needs to be on the lead, nursed along by Johnny V., saving ground. Another slow break and I wasted money.

8th Race - Two horse race. Egghead vs Lost in the Fog. Egghead comes in two points faster on T-Graph. He gets 4 pounds, gets a positive jockey switch and positive trainer change. 5-2 on Egghead versus 1-2 on Lost in the Fog. Easy decision on who to bet. The concern is that Lost in the Fog figures loose on the lead in here and will control the fractions. Also have to worry about bouncing from Egghead. His last two are amazing but his others are much slower. All of Lost in the Fog's races are fast. Side note. I have heard Lost in the Fog is 1 to 2 points faster than Egghead on Rags, so an interesting contrast in figures. I would be curious as to how comfortable jerry is with the Delaware and PHilly park races of egghead.

9th Race - Will probably take a shot with Gygistar. Comes in off three straight races in the negative 1 range. Yes, the 1 1/8 distance is a question mark, but the current form of the horse, positive pattern and affinity for Belmont are not.

10th Race - Good race. May be willing to take a shot here with Saint Stephen. Comes in off of paired "2's" and gets an 8 pound pull in the weights from Artie Schiller. That makes SS faster than the favorite. Meteor Storm's last was real good, but have to figure the horse loses ground from post 11. Willing to use Mustanfar as well, as this distance is better for him and he had lots of trouble in his last. Contends on his best.

11th Race - Kind of sold on Southern Africa after reading the ROTW. Don't like Giacomo at all, although the paired "0's" look good. Surprised at the figure for Reverberate in the Peter Pan, thought he ran faster than that. Will be spread out in the pick 4 here, using Southern Africa, Reverberate, Chekhov and Pinpoint.

Probably be leaving after the Belmont, so didn't handicap the last two.

Good luck.





Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 06/10/2005 12:41PM by jimbo66.