Jimbo,

"concern is that Lost in the Fog figures loose on the lead in here and will control the fractions"

I'm not 100% convinced that Lost in the Fog gets the lead here, let alone loose. I know the fractions of his last look very fast, but they weren't. His prior race was definitey slow paced and he rated in the race before that.

I think Going Wild is cranked for this and will try for the lead. (look at the 4F works coming in)

I actually think Prado would be smart to let him have it if he wants it and move outside to a stalking position. That shouldn't be too difficult because they might clear the rest of the horses. If he guns to stay inside and keep the lead, I don't think that would be very smart unless Going Wild is just slow early. Going Wild was a bad joke during the Triple Crown, but he was simply overmatched, running too far, and chasing Bellamy Road, Spanish Chestnut, High LImit, and other sprint quality speed in the Lexington. That may have been the worst set of races for any horse in the history of the Universe. :) I'm not saying he can win here (though I think he can run well if there's no duel), but I think he's actually a pretty good horse and can take some starch out of a horse like Lost in the Fog if they duel.

As to the two favorites, I think I prefer Lost in the Fog by just a hair because he's been at that high level for a longer period of time and beat some good horses in the Swale fairly easily. I think the trainer change for Egg Head is more of a plus than a negative.

Personally, I think the race will be unbettable. They won't be too far apart in price and they aren't too far apart on recent form.

How about this?

Egghead doesn't duplicate his best form.
Lost in the Fog duels with Going Wild.

Survivalist/Proud Accolade exacta. :)

Now that would be funny!








Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 06/10/2005 05:13PM by classhandicapper.