Has Afleet Alex now established a pattern where a good race is followed by an off race. With the numbers he gets there's not anything wrong with it but is this something to be aware of from here on out? Is it too early to make this assumption? Are patterns like this usually developed with older horses? If this is unique to individual horses, should it be viewed as healthy or not, as a negative pattern or not?
He obviously will be running from now on against horses of his stature as he begins to face older more experienced rivals. I'm wondering if he will need to be more consistant in his efforts to defeat the others as the pots get bigger.
Any thoughts on this?
Thanks.

J-Dub poses quite a few questions concerning Afleet Alex's pattern. Here's what I think in response to the questions and the pattern.

J-Dub, AA has certainly established an 0X0X0X pattern this year so far, where the 0 respesents good efforts, tops in this case, and X represents not so good efforts, bounces. One interesting point is that this is totally different from his 2yo pattern wherein he established a top and stayed there. The pattern has changed in his sophomore campaign, yet AA passes the tests we've enunciated quite often for good, healthy developing 3yos. Namely:

1. He came back to his 2yo top within 2 races. Indeed he broke through to a negative!! figure 1st out this year;
2. At least every other race is a top effort;
3. Intrinsically, both the good and the bad races are getting better.

Frankly AA's pattern is refreshing. Big efforts, especially negative efforts, are suppose to affect horses. And indeed as we see with AA, the big efforts do have an affect. But he recovers, quickly. His tops are at a threshold that very few 3yos horses in the past have run. Bandini, Bellamy Road and Greeley's Galaxy put up big negative figures prior to the Derby this year, similar to AA, but they all threw big bounces in the Derby, as did AA but to a lesser degree, and they haven't been heard from since. Only Smarty Jones last year is somewhat comparable to AA in recent times--he got back to his big Ark Derby top in the Preakness but the string of efforts finally got to him in the Belmont. In other words even the best horses can react to a big effort and an ensuing bounce shouldn't be held against them. The mark of health and strength is that the horse recovers quickly and the mark of talent is that he performs at peak levels, obviously. One can see the strength emanating from AA's line. While the tops are coming incrementally, the "bounces" are getting much better.

AA's sophomore pattern isn't unusual, other than the fact that he's racing at an extremely high performance level. One is apt to see this type of line in younger, healthy, lightly raced horses that are still growing and developing. They're still defining their boundaries and because they aren't fully developed; prosectively there are depths to plumb. In the introductory seminar, available online off the introduction page, we talk about Star of Cozzene, a good turf horse from years past, that exhibited a similar pattern of development.


Now I want to bring up again the seemingly out of place point above about the difference in AA's pattern at 2 and 3. Patterns change. As horses develop and grow, hit even higher, more strenuous, exacting performance levels, and/or get hurt, they may react differently from what they've done in the past. That's evident here with AA. What I would expect from him down the road, presuming good health, is that eventually the good and "bad" efforts will even up. He's getting stronger and as an older horse he'll be able to put consistent efforts together and perhaps develop even more. The Triple Crown series is fixed in terms of the timing--3 races in 5 weeks--but as an older horse AA's connections will be able to pick and choose his fights, so to speak, so presumably he'll be given time to recover from efforts which should help him perform on a more consistent basis.