J-Dub and P-Dub put forth some more questions concerning my response to J-Dub's initial question. Here goes.

First off J-Dub you say "...I see what you mean that his efforts are not extreme either way." What I am saying is that AA is performing in manner which is not unusual--he's reacting to tops, recovering quickly, and improving. I said the pattern is not unusual "...other than the fact that he's racing at an extremely high performance level." Let's not forget that qualifier because he is performing at EXTREME performance levels.

The second questions is: "One other question, based on your own previous observations, would you expect that when AA, or any horse with this pattern eventually breaks through their tops,it would be a small new top or a bigger jump up?"

The rule is that 3yos are not fully grown and thus are eligible to improve as they mature. But there are caveats, exceptions to this rule. One, the horse may be an early developer in which case it matures quickly and runs its top figures as a 2yo or 3yo. Examining the TG sire profiles can provide hints along this line. The horse population in North America improves on average 7 points from 2 through 5+--look at the TGI, Thoro-Graph Index for all horses, included in each hard copy set, ROTW and posted on the intro page. If a particular sire shows a markedly narrower range of development among its progeny, and a relatively fast 2yo TGI, he probably gets early developers and there's a good chance you've seen just about their best at 3. Funny Cide typifies an early developer. Second, not all horses come back to their previous performance levels for reasons which we know not. Maybe it's early development, maybe an injury, disinterest. Who knows? But it happens.

Since the pattern is positive I would expect more development. I would look at the sire profile to see how much the typical foal develops as it ages. Northern Afleet progeny show a relatively small number of age 5 and up starts, 75. Notwithstanding that, the progeny improve 8-1/4 points from 2 through 5 & up. AA has developed 5-1/4 points so far, so I foresee more development from him. But once horses starting pushing the performance envelope, development is likelier to come in smaller increments. It's hard to gauge just how much more forward the horse can or will go. Suffice to say it's not the pattern, per say, but the genetics and pure talent that determines how much a horse will develop. A healthy pattern makes the prospect of improvment more likely, but doesn't determine the scope of improvement.

P-Dub questions: "Do you find it more difficult for horses to run tops or pairs when racing at a distance longer than what they are used to??...How do you handle these situations? Do you pay more attention to the figures, distance, or a combination of both?"

In the words of Otis Blackwell--first I look at the purse, only kidding. But seriously I look at the figures first. Now I do happen to believe that particular distances may provide better scenarios for horses to run optimal performances. But I'm not sure how important that is. Trips, trouble, talent, weight, post, current condition, trainer and jockey competance and other horses are all factors which enter into the handicapping equation. TG sire and dam profiles point to the prospective strengths of their runners and what distances might be best for them. But ultimately the horse determines its preferences. A good, fast 6F horse is much more likely to beat a 7F specialist if the latter isn't that fast to begin with. To reiterate, first I look at the figures. I'm much more likely to consider pedigree is first circumstances--1st route, 1st turf, perhaps 1st sprint even or extreme distance switches, 6F to 10F, etc. It seems intuitive to think that unusual distances increase the difficulty of horses pairing or running new tops, but in practice it's difficult to gauge and therefore just not that useful to dwell on.