TGAB,
Do you find it more difficult for horses to run tops or pairs when racing at a distance longer than what they are used to?? For instance a horse may excel at anything up to a 1 1/8 but when running longer (such as TC races) the horse may not be able to match the previous figures. However, other horses may have the same problem so while the horse may regress so will the others. I see where some were expecting a regression from AA, but if they all regress it doesn't really matter. Same thing with sprinters, some may excel at 6F but maybe 7F is too much for them despite the figure advantage. How do you handle these situations? Do you pay more attention to the figures, distance, or a combination of both?

MO,
You're right from a win bet perspective, but another way to bet is a cold exacta. If I feel an odds on horse can't lose, I'll check the exacta prices. How many times have you seen a 10-1 horse against an odds on horse pay those same odds for the exacta? You get the same 10-1 odds but its against everyone but the fav. The Met Mile write-up is a recent example of this.