Jimbo-- right off the bad one I would not have known what to do with it, but once he came back to run well around one turn I agree that it would be wrong to hold stopping at 1 1/4 against him. I would say that even if you disregard that race, you are looking at a pair with quite a bit of time in between, which he doesn't have this time. But I would still think he's around 50/50 to run his number, which means not much less than that to win.